Previews - York & Ascot Festival

Graham Richards - A new approach to racing

AscotAscot is a triangular course of one mile six furlongs and 34 yards. The course goes downhill from the mile and a half start for three furlongs into Swinley Bottom, which is the lowest part of the track; it joins the Old Mile and is then uphill with a straight run in of two and a half furlongs which levels out in the last hundred yards. The straight mile is downhill from the start, then rising to the five furlong gate, falling again slightly to the junction of the course then uphill levelling out in the last hundred yards. Ascot is a galloping track with easy turns nevertheless a demanding test especially on soft going.

Draw Bias

Five furlongs: High to middle

Six furlongs: Low carries a slight bias

Seven furlongs and a mile: Middle to high hold a slight bias

One mile round: Middle to high (75%)

Ten furlongs: Middle to high (73%)

Twelve furlongs: Middle to high(76%)Friday Predicted weather : Cloudy

Saturday Predicted weather : Cloudy

Sunday Predicted weather : Sunny

Ascot Festival Day One

Bollinger Champagne Challenge Series Final Handicap

Gentleman Amateur Riders (Class D) In Association (3yo+,0-85)
1 Mile 4 Furlongs

Martin Pipe won this race last season with Belle D’Anjou off a mark of 64, she is now with Philip Hobbs and runs off a mark of 69. She disappointed last time over hurdles and is passed over. Second last year to Belle D’Anjou, Porak is now 9lbs higher on 71. This fellow slooshed up at Goodwood and looks in tip top form he will not go down without a fight. From Martin Pipe’s five entries I like Fratenize (well-handicapped) and Miss Fara. Showpiece is in and out; on his one run for an amateur he disappointed. Dr Cool has run well in amateur and apprentice races and is still fairly handicapped; a fast pace will be assured and that will suit this fellow. Leatherback is a horse for your note books when the mud is flying over hurdles or on the flat, while Spectrometer may not be an ideal ride for an amateur. Not a particularly inspiring opening race Dr. Cool and Fratenize are selected against the field and a small each-way stake is suggested on both.

European Breeders Fund Harvest Stakes

(Class A) (Listed Race) (3yo+)
1 Mile 4 Furlongs

Spring Oak, Love Everlasting, Lady’s Secret, Bright And Clear, Rosa Parkes and Jalousie are the top rated on official figures. Fillies races are notoriously difficult to weigh up at this time of the year and several of these would prefer some give in the ground. John Gosden’s Treble Heights improved on her second run when up to a mile and threequarters while Glam Rock may improve on the likely fast ground. Jalousie will probably take them along and will be hard to pass. Bright and Clear, Glam Rock, Treble Heights and Rosa Parkes are taken to swoop late with Bright And Clear just given the nod.

Watership Down Stud Sales

(Class B) (2yo)
6½ Furlongs

An impossible race and I suggest we keep our powder dry for later races over the three days. Hectors’s Girl and Caught in The Dark were impressive winners in their last races and are taken against the field

Brunswick Stakes Showcase Handicap

(Class B) (3yo,0-105)

6 Furlongs

Thirty-one runners with Funfair Wayne heading the weights. I thought he won the Ayr Gold Cup with a little in hand and if reappearing he will be hard to keep out of the frame. Greenslades finished 1¼ lengths in front of Green Line in April and is 8lbs better off with that horse. A facile winner at Ayr in his maiden, expect serious market interest in this animal. Vanderlin is high in the weights, he still does not impress with his attitude in a finish; however he has ability and a stiff six furlongs, together with a likely big field will suit him; he can make the frame. Baralinka, Green Line, Mr.Toad, Jonny Eborneezer and Strathclyde are consistent and should run well.Greenslades is well regarded by his stable, and to my thoughts, exceptionally well handicapped. The main dangers are Baralinka, Funfair Wayne and Vanderlin.

European Breeders Fund Classified Stakes

(Class B) (3yo+,0-95)

1 Mile 2 Furlongs

Another disappointing race in which Jalousie would be the selection if being re-routed. Red Carnation (to be noted for a soft ground handicap this autumn), King Mill and Maimana would prefer give in the ground and although Mahroos is improving he has something to find.Football Crazy goes in the soft, he does however handle faster ground and ran in a competitive handicap over in Ireland recently, performing creditably after a break, he can return to winning ways in Jalousie’s absence.

Thoroughbred Breeders Association Handicap

(Class D) (3yo,0-80)
1 Mile

A competitive handicap to end the day and one, which I feel will be dominated by the top weights. Ashkelon had a confidence restoring win last time and still appears well treated. Siouxsie Sioux has always been highly regarded by her shrewd trainer; another to win last time, she may be a blot on the handicap. Ettrick Water is consistent, but now looks exposed. Rhythm Of Life did nothing wrong when winning at Sandown recently and looks sure to be in the shake up, as should Strathspey, another model of consistency who always gives her best.

Siouxsie Sioux is taken to repel Ashkelon and Rhythm Of Life.
Day Two

Hackney Empire Royal Lodge Stakes

(Class A) (Group 2) (2yo)

1 Mile

Eight entries for Aiden O’Brien; from these my pick is Brain Boru who won his maiden having missed the beak. The form has worked out well and various form line he is a similar horse as Van Nistelrooy without allowing for any improvement which will surely be forthcoming. Lundy’s Lane showed promise on his debut and looks the type to improve with time. Norse Dancer will appreciate this stiff mile and should give a good account of himself. At Goodwood although performing creditably he was not a hundred percent and he will be a tough nut to crack. Unigold is going the right way; he would be better off in maiden company. John Gosden has three entered and improving Al Jadeed would be the choice of the trio. Maghanim followed his excellent second to Almushahar with a smooth success at Doncaster. He had the run of the race that day, and he strikes me as the type who would do better with an easier option than this, before being put away for the winter. Fast ground would suit Magistretti and he makes more appeal than Richard Hannon’s Puma and Tacitus Bahamian Dancer, Famous Grouse and Indian Haven have it all to do Brian Boru from Van Nistelrooy to take the prize back to Ireland; Al Jadeed, Magistretti and Norse Dancer are nominated as the dangers.

Meon Valley Stud Fillies' Mile

(Class A) (Group 1) (2yo)

1 Mile

Reach For The Moon an impressive winner first time out has a wonderful pedigree, being a half-sister to top Japanese horse Agnes Digital and Royal Lodge winner Royal Kingdom. The form of the race is solid and she will relish this trip. Summitville looks sure to confirm the form with Approach; prior to that she had run Soviet Song to three lengths in soft ground. I believe with that filly proving herself on firm ground on her debut, looking for all the world, a class horse on both her outings, Summitville has it all to do reverse placings. Soviet Song had Airwave in second on her debut and that filly won well at Ayr last week. It is hard pick any holes in the form and James Fanshawe’s filly will be a tough nut to crack. Hold To Ransom is improving as are Inchberry, Casual Look and Ballerina Suprema. The latter is held in some regard by Michael Bell and whatever her fate here she will make up into a lovely three-year-old staying filly. Rainbow Queen made an eye-catching debut, picking up well despite showing signs of greenness, she can be expected to come on a good deal for the experience. Rainbows For All is useful but may prefer easier ground. Mail The Desert and Pearl Dance are closely matched on their latest run at The Curragh, overall their form falls just short of what will be needed here. Huja has been pleasing her trainer at home, she finished behind Mail The Desert at Goodwood; I am sure on this stiffer track she will reverse that form. A fascinating race in prospect with Soviet Song just given the vote over Reach For The Moon on the basis she has the form in the book already. Summitville, Huja and Rainbow Ways can fight out third place.

Brunswick Diadem Stakes

(Class A) (Group 2) (3yo+)

6 Furlongs

The O’Brien team will struggle to plunder this prize which includes entries from Sweden and France. Do The Honours has shown her best form on soft, however there is nothing in the pedigree to suggest good to firm will be a serious problem. Malhub is the pick of the John Gosden trio and only Richard Hills’s weakness in a finish diminishes confidence. The Fanshawe duo like give in the ground as does Orientor. The Swedish Raiders seems outclassed, Nobel Prize seems the best; yet again soft ground seems a prerequisite. Crystal Castle won at Deauville after his success in the Tote International here in July; his overall profile suggests he is not quite good enough for this. Danehurst is not the horse she was last season. Polar Way is progressive and I can see him making the frame.Do The Honours is just favoured over Malhub with Polar Way and Mount Abu selected for the minor placings.

Tote Trifecta Stakes Showcase Handicap

(Class B) (3yo+)

7 Furlongs

Of the lower weights I feel Cashmere (heavily backed and unlucky in running last time), J R Stevenson (without doubt being prepared for another touch( and Lord Protector (stable showing signs of a revival), are the pick. Certain Justice has missed some tempting engagements and should be considered. Inchdura is game, consistent and the stable could hardly be in better form. Mr. Mahoose will be many peoples fancy; I believe he dislikes big fields and overlook him. Mine is back over seven furlongs and showed up well from a poor draw in the Ayr Gold Cup. Ratio was heavily punted for a race last month, in which he was withdrawn, he has since had a pipe opener and is solid frame material. Wixoe Express has had a nice break and Sir Mark Prescott who won this with Wizard King a few years back thinks highly of this fellow. Demonstrate’s last two runs can be ignored; back over the track and distance, he won on in June, he can be strongly fancied. The top weights look to have a tough task, Mister Cosmi may prove the pick, and please remember to study the draw as it can be highly significant in races such as this.A close call here; I suggest two each-way bets, on Wixoe Express and Demonstrate and nominate Ratio and Mine as frame material.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

(Class A) (Sponsored by NetJets) (Group 1) (3yo+)

1 Mile

Nothing in racing is certain, however whether it is the pairing of Rock Of Gibraltar and Sahara Desert or Hawk Wing and Sholokhov this prize will go back to Ballydoyle. Personally I would like to see Hawk Wing given the chance on fast ground to prove himself the superstar I believe he is. Gossamer will miss out unless divine intervention brings rain down in "reservoir loads". Tillerman will appreciate fast ground along with Noverre and Zenda. The latter ran a blinder at Royal Ascot when second to Sophisticat, she has been rested since and although having to improve is suggested, along with Best Of The Bests, who is running well at present as the dangers to the "O’Brien Chosen One". A combination forecast is suggested, unless of course you are an odds on punter.

Kleenex Tissues Rosemary Rated Stakes

(Class A) (Handicap) (Listed Race) (3yo+,0-105)

1 Mile

Granadilla disappointed on her last run; she has been working well since and is expected to leave that effort behind here. Macadamia was another to disappoint last time out, impressive at Newmarket on her previous run she should be forgiven that effort and considered here. Sonorous would be an interesting contender if coming over from Ireland and a bold showing from Football Crazy on Friday would enhance her chances here. Russian Rhapsody is running into form and looks to have frame possibilities; stable companion Loveleaves is coming back from a long break. Reasonably handicapped Loveleaves is a likeable filly who has a decent race in her. Lady Bear would not relish fast ground if attempting to follow up her Ayr success. Welsh Diva finished behind Disco Volante and has a 17lbs pull for five lengths, however, she has not progressed since; although this mile would be on the sharp side, Disco Volante would be a more than interesting contender. Sandy Lady bounced back to form at Kempton and is still well weighted on her best form. This is a real poser; Disco Volante is the selection in the hope she tries to make all. Sonorous, Granadilla, Loveleaves and Sandy Lady are nominated as the dangers in that order.

Caplan Gordon Carter Stakes

(Handicap) (Class C) (3yo+,0-95)
2 Miles

Hawkwind continues to progress and should comfortably confirm Goodwood form with Alrida and Look First; I believe he can win off a mark of 87 this season so off 82 here he will run a big race. The remainder of the field contains a lot of the usual suspects in this type of race. Conquestadora ran as though needing the race at Ayr last Saturday; the steady early pace of the race did little to help. A quick reappearance would, however, be a surprise; one would hope of a bold showing if she does appear. Knavesmire Owen got this trip well when regaining the winning habit at Yarmouth; stable companion Mana D’Argent loves it here and if back on song, would be expected to be thereabouts. Establishment has been fighting the handicapper this season; second in this last year he is running off an 11lbs higher mark and may need some more respite from the handicapper. High And Mighty is an in and out performer who often goes well round this track. Cotopaxi’s run at Newbury seven days ago suggested this trip would suit and he should go well if turned out again.Hawkwind to continue his upward curve with Cotopaxi, Conquestadora and Establishment to chase him home, is the suggestion in this second day finale.

Ascot Day 3

Young Vic Theatre Cumberland Lodge Stakes

(Class A) (Group 3) (3yo+)
I Mile 4 furlongs

John Gosden’s horses are in tremendous form and Charley Bates represents the stable here. A compulsive front runner he will struggle over this shorter trip. Assuming there is a fast pace the Warrsan, Foreign Affairs should be suited by it as they both need a trip. Legal Approach and Systematic may represent Mark Johnston. The former won gamely from Frankies Dream with King Solomon way behind; the race was a muddling affair and I prefer Systematic who can race just behind the pace before kicking for home on the home turn. As mentioned before Nysaean will win a decent race this autumn on soft ground, and he will almost certainly miss this.Systematic to hold off Legal Approach and Foreign Affairs.

JRA London Office's 10th Anniversary Conditions Stakes

(Class C) (2yo)

7 Furlongs

Aiden O’Brien has three entered; France ran a reasonable race at Newbury when looking in need of the run. Middlemarch and First Dynasty are, as expected, well entered up, jockey bookings will be interesting. Weavers Pride found the Champagne Stakes too much at Doncaster and may again struggle in this company. He is a horse to remember for next season. Excelsius won a maiden at San Siro, Italy in impressive fashion; impossible to evaluate the form the time of the race was faster than two other seven furlong races the same day. A 2003 Derby entry he has to be respected. Love You Always and Governor Brown are closely matched on form, both will be suited to the seven furlongs. Vilas won a small race at Hamilton; he is well regarded by his trainer, Captain Saif has won both his starts, a grand stamp of a horse he has the ability to win at Listed level and he is to feared here. Debutantes Harcourt and Curlew River are interesting and the former a Racing Post Trophy entrant may prove the pick. Captain Saif is progressing and he is taken to get the better of Excelsius, Governor Brown and Love You Always.

Riggs Bank Rated

(Class B) Handicap (3yo+,0-105)
5 Furlongs

Another "usual suspects" handicap. My four against the field are Trace Clip, Gotarapofahames, Peruvian Chief Greenwood. A combination forecast is suggested and each-way bets on Trace Clip, who will go very close if he can get a good break and Gotarapofahames.

The Mail On Sunday/Tote Mile Final

(Handicap) (Class B) (3yo+)

1 Mile

Sorry but another "usual suspects" handicap. Zonergem, Stretton, Digital and Style Dancer another combination forecast is suggested and each-way bets on Zonargem, who will go very close and Stretton reportedly laid out for this for sometime.

Tote Exacta Stakes Showcase Handicap

(Class B) (3yo+)
1 Mile 4 Furlongs

We need genuine fast ground for Contraband who is reported by William Haggas as 100%. William has no idea what happened on his last run and believes it may have been the "bounce". The horse is working as well have as he has ever done and Jamie Spencer is booked; a big run is expected. If Lingo takes up this engagement he will be a serious opponent. Held back for decent ground, should the rain come to scupper Contraband, this fellow will take all the beating. Muhareb, Scott’s View and Muhareb are closely matched and I take Navado to improve pass his conquerors at York. Dune will run his usual game race if coming here.Contraband must have genuine fast ground and he is the selection given those conditions. Lingo will would become the selection on good or softer ground with Navado and Muhareb taken as the dangers.

Sodexho Nursery

(Class B) (2yo)

7 Furlongs Itemise, Riska King and To The Rescue all have handicap marks I consider accurate and fair. Overide trained by James Eustace, who won this race last year, can improve over this seven furlongs. High Accolade is exceptionally well handicapped on a line through Senor Sol and Mysterinch; he ran better than his final position suggests at Sandown. Jay Gee’s Choice is another going the right way.High Accolade is taken to repel Itemise Overide, Jay Gee’s Choice and

Riska King.

The York Ebor Meeting

It’s a quality start to the Festival, with the following programme featured on Tuesday:-

The Paradime Acomb Stakes Precocious juveniles are catered for in this Listed race for two-year-olds supported once again by the successful equine breeding operation, Paradime Bloodstock Ltd.
The Weatherbys Insurance Lonsdale Stakes Top-quality stayers line up for York’s longest race of the season. This Group 3 contest over two miles is a popular race, with last year’s hero Persian Punch the fourth horse to win this race twice in the last decade.
The Juddmonte International Stakes A high-quality turn-out is assured for York’s most valuable race of the season. With a Total Prize Fund of £450,000, this famous Group 1 race attracts the best middle-distance performers in Europe, emphasised by the current champion, Sakhee.
The Great Voltigeur Stakes The 53rd running of this Group 2 race is an acknowledged stepping-stone for horses aimed at the final Classic of the season, next month’s Rothmans Royals St. Leger Stakes at Doncaster. In fact, eleven horses have successfully completed the Great Voltigeur - St. Leger double, including last year’s winner, Milan.
The Ladbroke Knavesmire Handicap Stakes Competitive racing is assured in this valuable handicap over one mile and a half, won last season by the Yorkshire-trained Borders Belle.
The Gerrard Wealth Management Eglinton Nursery Handicap Stakes Contested by two-year-olds, this race is sponsored for the second year by Gerrard, one of the U.K.’s leading private client investment management companies. The race is part of this season’s Gerrard Bonus Series, a national competition for two-year-olds, which culminates in a Final in October.
The Links Of London Handicap Stakes A fast and furious conclusion to the first day, this Showcase Handicap for sprinters, marks the third year of sponsoring at this Festival by Links of London, suppliers of many trophies and mementoes presented to the winning connections at this and other meetings at York.

The high standard of racing continues on Wednesday:-
The Motability Supported by Royal SunAlliance Rated Stakes The extended one mile and a quarter is the distance in this valuable handicap race. Motability, the national charity, visit York this year in conjunction with Royal SunAlliance, which provides motor insurance to members of the charitable scheme.
The Aston Upthorpe Yorkshire Oaks Italian raider, Super Tassa, won this coveted Group 1 race for fillies last season, emphasising the international appeal of both this race and the wider Ebor Festival.
The Tote Ebor Europe’s richest handicap race, with a Total Prize Fund of £185,000, is contested over one mile and threequarters. Several Yorkshire-trained horses look likely to be attempting to emulate the 1997 winner, Far Ahead, to keep the majority of the prize money in the county.
The Scottish Equitable Gimcrack Stakes This famous Group 2 race for two-year-olds, announces the arrival of a potential equine star, with Classic aspirations for the following season. Last year’s winner, Rock of Gibraltar, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, M.B.E. has gone on to equal Mill Reef’s 30-year record of six consecutive Group 1 victories, including Classic victories in both the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas.
The Costcutter Roses Stakes Pepperoni, trained locally near Malton by Tim Easterby was last season’s winner of this Listed race for juvenile sprinters.
The Convivial Maiden Stakes Another valuable race for two-year-olds aiming to make their mark in the top races.
The Eventmasters Falmouth Handicap Stakes Leading three-year-old sprinters are in action in this race sponsored for the first time by Eventmasters, the Egbaston-based sports event management company. Last year’s winner, Jessica’s Dream went on to further success in Ireland and Italy.

Thursday is ‘Ladies Day’, which starts, appropriately, with a Listed race for fillies and mares:-
The European Breeders Fund Galtres Stakes This race over one mile and a half once again enjoys the support of the EBF - one of six races supported at York this season by them.
The Peugeot Lowther Stakes This Group 2 race for juvenile fillies (won last year by the highly-regarded Queen’s Logic) enjoys the support of Peugeot for the fifth year. Peugeot continue their support of the award for the leading jockey of the Festival (won for the past two years by Mick Kinane).
The Bradford & Bingley Rated Stakes This Showcase Handicap for milers enjoys the support of Bradford & Bingley plc for the 20th year. Tough Speed was last year’s winner, prior to going on to win in Group company.
The Victor Chandler Nunthorpe Stakes The famous Group 1 race for sprinters, won last year by Mozart. Europe’s top speedsters will clash for one of the most prestigious prizes in the racing calendar. The successful owner will receive the highly personal prize of a painting commissioned from the acclaimed equine artist, Christopher Dennis.
The Melrose Rated Stakes A competitive handicap race for stayers named after James Melrose, a former chairman of the York Race Committee from 1875 to 1925. The champion jockey, Kieren Fallon, gave Artillery a brilliant ride to win last year’s renewal in the dying strides.
The McArthurGlen Designer Outlet City of York Stakes This Listed race once again enjoys the support of the York-based sponsors, who also sponsor the ‘Best-Dressed Lady Racegoers’ competition on ‘Ladies Day’.
The Blue Bicycle Stakes The final race of the 2002 Tote Ebor Festival is a Nursery Handicap for two-year-olds, which sees the return to sponsorship on the Knavesmire by the popular York restaurant, Blue Bicycle of Fossgate.

York Day One
Draw
5 & 6 Furlongs: Middle
7 Furlongs: Middle to High
8 Furlongs: Low To Middle
10 & 12 Furlongs: Middle to Low
14 Furlongs: Low in big fields

6 Furlongs 214 Yards Paradime Acomb Stakes(Class A) (Listed Race) (2yo)
Amandus Progressive colt that may be suited by some give in the ground.
Armada Grove Would be unbeaten had she not unseated her pilot first time out; much more to prove
Barney McAll Improving and needs too, to figure here.
Bourbonnais Grand colt with scope. Just outspeeded at Goodwood and must go close.
Buy The Sport Followed her debut win at Windsor in Russian Rhythm’s slipstream at Ascot. Not quite up to this.
Desert Lord Came to the track with a big reputation; half- brothers were all better as three-year-olds and may follow that trend.
France Unraced, well entered colt. O’Brien had last years third with an unraced colt.
Garros Possible needs a mile already, third best of trainers entries.
Glenviews Purchase Outclassed.
Grand Should find a race in lesser company.
Great Pyramid Decent colt considered Group class by his trainer.
High Accolade Nice colt who confirmed the promise of his debut run with a smooth victory at Newbury. May already need a mile and stable form a concern as I write( 2 winners from 43 runners in the last 7 days).
Illustria Mick Channon thinks a lot of this filly, improving and talented.
Miguel Cervantes Speedy colt, may find this seven furlongs too testing at present.
Salcombe Impressed in the paddock and the race when winning first time out at Ascot. Sure to progress and looks first three material
Washeeq Won well at Goodwood and should continue to progress, likely to make the frame.
Weavers Pride Well entered up newcomer.
Wilful Still though to be green when winning last time out, second best of trainers entries.
Wizard Of Oz Won an average race with ease. Sure to improve but has a stiff task here.
Selections: 1. Bourbonnais 2. Salcombe 3. Washeeq
1 Mile 7 Furlongs 195 Yards Weatherbys Insurance Lonsdale Stakes (Class A) (Group 3) (3yo+)
Arctic Owl Has had an honourable career, but is probably past his best now.
Bangalore Game gelding who will be fresher than most. May improve to get in "The Four".
Boreas Must have cut to show his very best and that is unlikely.
Cover Up Held by Jardines Lookout on Goodwood running and more of a handicapper.
Daliapour Returned to form over fourteen furlongs and holds Boreas and Quality Team on that form. May not stay two miles.
Darasim Has an entry in the Ebor. Improving and likeable horse who may be up to this class by the end on the season.
Give Notice Game and consistent, no reason why he should reverse form with either Vinnie Roe or Jardines Lookout on his last two runs.
Jardines Lookout Finally fulfilled trainers expectations with a decisive win in the Goodwood Cup. Second in the race last year and hard to see him finishing out of the first two.
Movie King Likely pacemaker.
Persian Punch Yet another coming to the end of his career and a revival seems unlikely.
Quality Team Held on form and maybe another pacemaker.
Savannah Bay Consistent in lower company and will struggle here.
Taffrail Handicapper who loves fast ground, too much on his plate here.
Travelmate Another oldie but goodie, who will surely find this too tough.
Vinnie Roe A class act and if the ground is no faster than good will take all the beating. Connections will surely be keen to avoid another race on fast ground.
Selections: 1. Jardines Lookout 2. Give Notice 3. Bangalore

1 Mile 2 Furlongs 85 Yards Juddmonte International Stakes (Class A) (Group 1) (3yo+)
The analysis of this race is being written assuming that the O’Brien horse will be staying in Ireland. Hawk Wing would have been my clear choice had the respiratory virus not struck down the stable. Golan will be many peoples choice to follow up his King George victory. Golan’s profile suggests that twelve furlongs is undoubtedly his best trip and the manner of his victory at Ascot suggest his main assets are guts and staying power. On the other hand Nayef seemed to be just outbattled and a return to this trip, in my mind, is certain to suit Nayef rather than Golan. The drawback with Nayef is his trainers form; as I write he has had runners in the last fourteen days yielding just winner. Grandera blotted his copybook at Ascot, prior to that run he had been mightily impressive at the Royal Meeting. Jockey Frankie Dettori summed up Grandera’s needs "He wants fast ground, a strong pace and a mile and a quarter, to show his best". Frankie’s comments after the King George were hard to take on board and I believe the simple answer was that he had an off day prior to, and in the race. Simon Crisford told us after Royal Ascot "In Grandera we have a four-year-old who loves fast ground, an ideal Godolphin campaigner". Islington is likely to be re-routed to the Yorkshire Oaks, this is in my opinion an opportunity to get a twelve-furlong Group victory on her CV. Her victory in the Nassau was faultless and if there is a change of heart she is a banker for the first three. To be quite frank if any of the other runners win I will be amazed. You need a true Group 1 performer to win this race; in the hope the ground continues to dry out and at the likely price I am going for Grandera. In the event of any softening in the ground Nayef would become the selection.
1 Mile 3 Furlongs 195 Yards Great Voltigeur Stakes (Class A) (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (3yo)
The analysis of this race is being written assuming that the O’Brien horses will be staying in Ireland. Sholokhov would have been my choice of the Ballydoyle entries had the respiratory virus not struck down the stable. Official ratings have Bandari clear at the top; wide margins victories either side of his Derby flop are hard to knock and on a line through First Charter and Balakheri he comes out three or four lengths behind High Chaparral. That should makes him a worthy favourite; he does however, seem to have something in his make up that can surface and cause him to put in a dreadful effort. It may be that he needs to be fresh and that he performs better in small fields, this race will tell us much and at likely short odds I would be happy to take him on. Dawn Invasion, Highest, Systematic and Common World are all more than useful and attempt to step up into Group class, Systematic would be nominated as the best longshot. Bollin Eric has been consistent in the best company; he may possibly lack the turn of foot to win this. Shami and Naheef represent the Godolphin stable the former is reported to be progressing well and he has a good chance of making the frame. Izdiham does not stay and stablemate Bustan has to improve on his run at Royal Ascot. If the rains come Nysaean comes into the equation; five lengths behind High Chaparral in the Irish Derby, he followed that effort by winning easily at Deauville. His only setback came on fast ground and presumably he would miss the race given that scenario. Bandari has to be the selection he has at least proved himself in this grade; to my mind he would not be a betting proposition at less than 5/2 and if soft ground comes I would be happy to take him on with Nysaean. Shami is the best each-way shot.
1 Mile 3 Furlongs 195 Yards Ladbroke Knavesmire Handicap (Class C) (3yo+,0-95)
A tricky handicap to analyse; I am taking four against the field. Celtic Island bounced back to form at Ayr last time and still looks a well handicapped horse to follow. Researched as not been seen since Chester three months ago, potentially a more than useful handicapper he is one to consider here and follow. Solo Flight drives his supporters mad, well supported at Goodwood last time he disliked the small field. This has the making on his sort of race and he will make the frame. Vicious Prince likes some give and will run well id he has that, old Warning Reef was second last year and is 6lbs lower now, if he gets in a small each-way at a massive price is advised.
1. Celtic Island 2. Solo Flight 3. Researched 3. Warning Reef 4. Vicious Prince

Six Furlongs Gerrard Wealth Management Eglinton Stakes (Nursery Handicap) (Class C) (2yo
Readers will know how much I dislike nursery handicaps, I have however studied this race closely. Pigeon Point ran well in a decent nursery at Windsor when second the other day, off the same mark he must go close here. Makhlab is preferred to Mullion out of the Hills entries and looks a progressive colt. No Time has more than a chance on the best of his form. Bollin Jeannie, Seashore Tara Tome and Cougar Count are closely matched on recent runs. Mark Johnston’s horses always run well in nurseries at York and he is respected on that score alone; he will have to improve to go close off his rating.
Selections: 1. Makhlab 2. Nuit Sombre 3. Pigeon Point 4. Bollin Jeannie5. No More Time
Six furlongs Links of London Stakes Showcase Handicap (Class C) (3yo+,0-100)
Another impossible sprint to try and sort out. Cubism ran well when an unlucky second at Salisbury recently and looks at the top of his game at present. Mine drops back to six furlongs. Reported to be being considered for the Ayr Gold Cup, I would imagine this will be very much a fact finding mission to assess his sprinting capabilities. Cardinal Venture is not easy to win with, he has been performing reasonably and could go well at a big price. Night Flight is another who will pop up at a big price before the end of the season. He finished second in this race last year and is 12lbs lower for this seasons renewal. Canteloupe bounced back to form at Windsor but seems to need a break between races. Forever Times holds her form well and our old friend Albashoosh must have a chance.
Selections: 1. Cubism 2. Albashoosh 3. Cardinal Venture 4. Mine

Draw
5 & 6 Furlongs: Middle
7 Furlongs: Middle to High
8 Furlongs: Low To Middle
10 & 12 Furlongs: Middle to Low
14 Furlongs: Low in big fields

1 Mile 2 Furlongs 85 Yards Motability Supported By Royal Sun Alliance Rated Stakes (Class B) (Handicap) (3yo+,0-105)
Twenty one runners entered an a competitive handicap. Kirovski is running well this season, improving on each run he again has risen in the weights and an apprentice may be booked; not to be dismissed lightly. Leadership crossed swords with Kiovski over course and distance in the John Smiths Magnet Cup, with Johannian and Lermontov both unplaced. Johannian is 8lbs better off with the two in front of him has had a break to freshen up. Michael Jarvis has always had a high opinion of this fellow and he will go close here. Norton is running consistently; he seems to like Ascot these days; Prairie Wolf and Robandela are regulars in these sort of races. Zone has ability, unfortunately he seems to have problems as well, Tissifer is consistent in claiming company. Martin House is coming back to form and James Bethell’s horses are always worth a second look at York, while Start Over though consistent looks outclassed.
Selections: 1. Johannian 2. Leadership 3. Kirovski 4. Martin House
1 Mile 3 Furlongs 195 Yards Aston Upthorpe Yorkshire Oaks (Class A) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (3yo+)
The analysis of this race is being written assuming that the O’Brien horses will be staying in Ireland. Quarter Moon would have been my choice of the Ballydoyle entries had the respiratory virus not struck down the stable. The two stand out fillies here are Kazzia and Islington. Kazzia is unbeaten and followed up her Guineas win with another battling display in the Oaks. She stays every yard of the trip and Dettori will make sure her rivals will know they have been in a war of attrition. Kazzia stays has won on good to firm, good to soft and soft; only on really firm going would I desert her. Islington is almost certain to run in this event. Islington was so impressive in the Nassau, one has to seriously wonder whether the mile and a quarter trip is her best. Islington’s breeding suggests she should get this trip with ease and she too has won on a variety of surfaces. Two wonderful fillies on show and almost impossible to separate them, surprisingly, Saeed bin Suroor does not have the best of records with all four of his charges (three were very well fancied) finishing out of the frame, this year Kazzia can change all that. The other runners are all rated within four or five pounds of each other and the improving Albanova is rated the pick of them.
Selections: 1. Kazzia 2. Islington 3. Albanova
1 Mile 5 Furlongs 195 Yards Tote Ebor Showcase Handicap (Class B) (3yo+)
You may be surprised to learn that the outcome of this event is affected by the draw. The size of the field makes it virtually impossible for a horse drawn high to gain a prominent early position without expending too much energy as a strong pace is guaranteed. Consequently, horses drawn high have to either race wide of the pack forfeiting ground racing five deep or drop in behind a wall of horses and hope the gaps appear at the right time on what is basically a front runner’s track. In the last ten years, eight winners have been drawn in stalls 1-10 and four of the first five home last year were drawn in the inside eight stalls. The last time high numbers dominated was in 1987 when runners drawn 21, 15, 18 and 17 filled the first four places and the ground rode soft. There is absolutely no point being blessed with a low draw if a horse is likely to be swamped for early pace or is a hold-up horse, the ability to lie up must be in the selections profile.Sarangani has been kept back for this since his facile victory three months ago. Jamie Spencer stays faithful to him, and any market support on the day should be respected. Darasim is a lovely animal who will be even an better horse next season. Saddled with 10 Stone 1lb he will find life difficult and a place is surely the best he can hope for. Harlestone Grey is from the in form John Dunlop stable his profile suggests this trip will suit I believe he wants further now. Tamiami Trail, Pole Star, Moon Emperor and Big Moment are all disappointing and overlooked. Bourgeois and King’s Welcome’s winning form does not look good enough and Hambleden though consistent needs to be dropped a few pounds, Lady Two K looks outclassed. Charley Bates is well weighted and his third to Jardines Lookout gives him an outstanding chance. He undoubtedly has an attitude problem and this is not the sort of race to take a chance with a horse like this. Court Shareef comes good at this time of year, Dancing Bay needs soft ground and the admirably consistent, Mana D’Argent will surely find this too sharp. Bollin Nellie is a fair performer and should reverse Ascot form with King’s Welcome. Cupboard Lover will not find it easy to come from behind and Dawn Invasion a tough performer is preferred. Jasmick would not be for me, Hugs Dancer needs further and Barathea Blazer would be the best of this trio. On his first attempt at this trip, he should stay and he looks to have been laid out for it, the worry is his ability to come from off the pace in a race such as this. Contraband makes seasonal debut and it will be a magnificent piece of training if he can win. Fast ground is necessary; given that scenario, he will be hard to keep out of the frame. Night Sight, Zibelin, Arabian Moon and Lermontov all look to have little chance. Scott’s View can be forgiven for his latest effort where he went off too fast. As stated earlier being able to race handily is essential and this gallant young stayer will be hard to keep out of the frame given that all important low draw. Vicious Prince needs cut and Kasthari though inexperienced may have got in with a proper racing weight. Lingo needs cut and would have more than a squeak if the heavens opened.
Selections: 1 Scott’s View 2. Contraband 3. Darasim 4. Sarangani 5. Kasthari
Six furlongs Scottish Equitable Gimcrack Stakes (Class A) (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (2yo)
Once again we are in the dark over the Ballydoyle runners. Great Pyramid would be my pick of their entries. Foss Way won well at Goodwood and the Gosden team are in great form, the second won easily on Saturday. Al Turf is the pick of the Hannon entries and his form is pretty solid. Country Reel’s form has been let down; he should improve and is not to be discounted. Masterpoint has not been seen for three months; the form of that race has worked out well and he has a solid each-way chance. Revenue is wonderfully consistent and talented, another good run Goodwood behind Elusive City gives him every chance and he will not be far away at the finish.
Selections: 1. Masterpoint 2. Revenue 3. Foss Way 4. Al TurfOrSelections 1. Great Pyramid 2. Masterpoint 3. Revenue 4. Foss Way 5. Al Turf
Five Furlongs Costcutter Roses Stakes (Class A) (Listed Race) (Colts & Geldings) (2yo)
Great Pyramid, Masterpoint and Revenue hold entries here which makes analysis extremely difficult. Sir Edwin Landseer and Folio ran well at Goodwood and preference is for the former who may improve over this stiffer track. Miguel Cervantes would be interesting over this trip if O’Brien brings him over. The rest are much of a muchness with Deportivo and Membership taken as the pick
Selections in order of preference: Great Pyramid, Revenue, Miguel Cervantes, Masterpoint, Sir Edwin Landseer, Folio, Deportivo, Membership.
Six Furlongs Convivial Maiden Stakes (Class D) (2yo)
Fiddlers Reach has the best form by far of those who have run and would be worth an interest if a sensible price. The market will provide the best clues so close study is advised before dipping your toe in the water. The well regarded Weavers Pride is reported to be working well; Barry Hills has an excellent line to two-year-old form. As you would expect France and Salt Lake City are well entered up in all the top races and either would command the utmost respect if coming over. Soyuz and Governor Brown have Group entries but neither Amundsen or Royal Aura do.
Five Furlongs Eventmasters Falmouth Handicap (Class C) (3yo,0-100)
A three-year-old handicap sprint to end with, usually fought out by horses in form. Plateau, Mornin Reserves, Dubaian Gift and Yorkie are preferred in that order.

Draw
5 & 6 Furlongs: Middle
7 Furlongs: Middle to High
8 Furlongs: Low To Middle
10 & 12 Furlongs: Middle to Low
14 Furlongs: Low in big fields

One mile three furlongs 195 Yards EBF Galtres Stakes (Class A) (Listed Race) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares)
37-1 Marani Dead heated on her return to racing after an enforced lay off through injury. If taking this route would be well up to defy her penalty.
8687 Corsican Sunset Out of form handicapping filly.
2111 Prompt Payment Improving handicapping filly who is making a step up in class and prefers cut in the ground
5122 Salim Toto Brave and improving filly who will not go down without a fight.
6314 Frosty Welcome Dead heated with Marani and then finished behind Salim Toto at Newbury. Likely to fine one or two too good for her again.
-375 Alexander Three D Capable filly who improved throughout last season. May need another month and cut in the ground.
413 Dawana Five lengths behind Salim Tote last time over a two furlong shorter trip. Certain to enjoy the step up in distance and one to consider.
7-16 L´Affaire Monique Ran an excellent race for one so experienced in the Irish Oaks. Family prefer cut in the ground.
2101 Nashwan Rose Dropped in class and won a decent handicap easily. Has not run on fast going though her sires progeny got on it. Trainer would not come over without thinking she has a serious chance.
1213 Robe Chinoise Tough handicapping filly who may find things happening too quickly for her.
21 Rosa Parks Likely to be all the rage. Works like a Group performer at home and will be suited by the trip. Her price will reflect what she is though able to achieve as opposed to what she has achieved.
Selections. 1. Marani 2. Rosa Parkes 3. Nashwan Rose 4. Dawana
Six Furlongs Peugeot Lowther Stakes (Class A) (Group 2) (Fillies) (2yo)
11 Romantic Liason Royal Ascot five furlong winning filly who should be able to show her best over six furlongs.
11 Russian Rhythm Undefeated filly. Well developed and tough. Favourite for next year 1000 Guineas. Toughest task to date but has she looks and making of a serious filly.
1121 Wunders Dream Won the Molecomb at Goodwood and is very speedy. Six furlongs may be stretching her at present.
1 Danaskaya Anything Great Pyramid achieves will be a fine advert for this filly who beat her first time out at Naas. Well thought of by her talented and shrewd trainer.
1113 Rag Top Stays six furlongs but may be at her very best with some cut in the ground.
1 Reach For The Moon Won a Cork maiden in convincing style. Stable will be keen to run to get a line on the best English fillies.
0512 Wimple Ran second to Speed Cop on Saturday and unlikely to run here.
Sections: 1. Russian Rhythm 2. Danaskaya 3. Romantic Liason
Seven Furlongs 202 Yards Bradford & Bingley Rated Stakes (Class B) Showcase Handicap (3yo+,0-105)
7651 Bouncing Bowdler Game front runner, had the run of the race last time massive weight.
-297 Zarin Has had problems.
5559 Spanish Don Out of form.
7238 Patsy´s Double Game, in form big weight.
0544 Ho Choi Too much weight for a three-year-old.
1105 Calcutta Top of his form at present, trainer in form, frame possibilities.
1183 Norton Seems to like Ascot these days, has had some hard races.
7094 Pulau Tioman Dropping down to a winning weight and could go well as he seems to be approaching top form.
0353 Vicious Knight Will like fast ground and is fairly handicapped, definite each-way material.
3414 Beauchamp Pilot Continues to rise up the handicap. Should have won last time out and the less said about the putrid ride he received the better. A mile on firm ground would be a worry.
9706 Omaha City Switched to Dandy Nicholls so anything could happen. Loves Goodwood and will struggle to stay a mile here.
1002 Dumaran Consistent in this grade, best with cut in the ground.
3-12 Bestam Talented, but perhaps prefers small fields and further..
6117 Demonstrate Progressive prior to his latest run where he had no chance from poor draw. Should stay a mile but the evidence suggest seven furlongs is his trip.
1500 Pentecost Disappointing since his win at Royal Ascot and passed over.
6200 Invader In and out performer capable of popping up at a big price. Stable in form.
-102 Man Of Distinction Best on all-weather.
0302 Atlantic Ace Desperately unlucky at Goodwood. Has run well at that course and was set up for that race. Overall profile suggest this may not be his race or track.
6844 Nashaab Loves firm ground, squeak of a chance at a big price.
0-10 Judicious Had had problems and not one to have much faith in.
5204 Thihn Wonderful old campaigner who always gives of his best. The handicapper still has him in his sights.
0230 Muchea Gallant old timer passed his very best.
4096 Morro Castle Not for me.
5129 Morpheous High in the weights and not sure to stay the trip.
1/24 True Thunder Cecil handicapper, fairly weighted and only win over a mile. Possibilities.
1147 Donna´s Double Seems to have lost his way in last two runs.
4732 Tedstale Consistent in this sort of rave an has an outside chance of a place. Stable in form
3313 Gem Bien Another consistent animal sure to give his running, may be just flying too high.
5457 Stretton Disappointing since sensational win at Chester. Has won at York and the trainer loves this meeting; given the run of the race will be thereabouts.
0070 Faithful Warrior Running into to top form and dropping down the weights. Goes really well for Darryl Holland. Hard to see him out of the frame.
0045 Naviasky Talented and demented, which will see?
0020 Welsh Wind fair performer at his best; has had problems, may pick up a race in less demanding company..
3110 Pablo Blotted his copybook at Goodwood and needs soft ground.
1P06 Lady Bear In and out performer; may be seen to her best towards the end of the season.
1115 Freya´s Dream Winning run has come to and end and may need a rest or to drop a few pounds.
3419 Funfair Talented and temperamental beast who needs cut in the ground.
1213 Pie High Front runner who may find this too demanding.
5100 Takes Tutu Could never get to the front at Newbury on Saturday, needs the draw and luck at the gates.
The first four home last year came form stalls 2,4,1,3 when seventeen ran.Selections: 1. Faithful Warrior 2. Stretton 3. Vicious Warrior 4. Pulau Tioman 5. Tedstale
Five Furlongs Victor Chandler Nunthorpe Stakes (Class A) (Group 1) (2yo+,--)
8922 Bahamian Pirate Two good seconds on latest two runs. Best over six and has run well without winning over five furlongs. Fast pace will suit.
2317 Bishops Court Very useful on his day and the race will be run to suit; lively outsider.
0251 Continent July Cup winner who is better with give in the ground and has hot won over five furlongs for two years.
0530 Indian Prince Will find life tough in this company.
1113 Kyllachy Top rated on official figures. Slightly unlucky at Royal Ascot and should reverse form on this track; runs well fresh.
-117 Malhub Another never to have run over five. Loves fast ground and has to be considered on the best of his form..
-364 Orientor Six furlongs in the autumn will see the best of this fellow.
1302 Rudi´s Pet Very fast and likely to be up with the pave
1682 Smokin Beau Fast but anther out of his depth in Group 1 company
1468 The Trader Ability but surely outclassed here.
5-36 Three Points Very fast, but surprisingly has never run over five furlongs, loves fast ground. Stable has been quite and it will be interesting how their earlier runners fare.
1663 Whitbarrow Made the pace at Goodwood in the Kings Stand, overall profile suggests he is not up to this. Another trailblazer.
1-23 Danehurst Ratings suggest she is not as good as last season Her profile suggest autumn is her time and she may just be outspeeded over this trip.
1733 Jessica´s Dream Speedy filly who was desperately unlucky at Goodwood: at her best with cut in the ground.
7005 Misty Eyed Seems to have lost the plot at the highest level.
11-1 Dominica Very fast and may get caught in a battle with Rudi’s Pet for the lead.
3638 Lady Dominatrix Another front runners who can help set up the race for the strong finishers.
7214 Porlezza Ran well at Goodwood despite hating the track and ground. Track will suit her better but the likely fast ground is a worry.
Selections 1. Kyllachy 2. Three Points 3. Bahamian Pirate
One mile five furlongs 194 yards Melrose Rated Stakes (Class B) (Handicap) (3yo,0-100)
4172 Barathea Blazer Running in The Ebor
1194 Old California Started the season well and then lost his way. An autumn campaign on soft ground is the plan; likely to find this too much on fast ground.
1882 Halawellfin Hala Beautiful moving horse who is harshly handicapped.
413 Kasthari Lightly raced and improving, lot to do under this weight.
1214 Lingo Will only run if the trainer considers ground is suitable. Has the breeding to suggest he will get the trip and his form is rock solid.
2163 Distinction Ran a blinder at Goodwood along with Dune and Sentinel. Track will suit him better and has a chance.
6221 Navado Highly rated by the stable and progressive; frame material.
2101 Windermere Made all to win convincingly six days ago. Has the potential to improve again and is very much one to consider.
1324 Dune Consistent, game and talented colt. His form is solid and I believe he will improve again over this longer trip; major chance
5321 Stance Has been working well at home. Progressive colt who is well thought of and should be in the frame.
1115 Sentinel Disappointing at Goodwood; chance if back to his best.
3127 Total Turtle Best with give in the ground and trip a worry.
-431 Unleash Came good under a strong ride in a reasonable handicap last. Will improve again for the step up in trip, and one to consider.
1120 Treasure Trail Outclassed.
-542 Autumn Fantasy Has been steadily improving this may be just too much for him.
4504 Our Imperial Bay Has not progressed as hoped.
1112 Knavesmire Omen Ran on Tuesday and unlikely to run.
5312 Timing Stays two miles, outclassed in this grade.
0125 Mystic Forest Outclassed.
7722 Solomon’s Mine Beaten by Inglis Drever on Monday; out of his depth.
Selections: 1. Dune 2. Lingo 3. Navado 4. Stance 5. Unleash
Six furlongs 214 yards McArthurglen Designer Outlet City of York Stakes (Class A) (Listed Race) (3yo+)
Mister Cosmi should ensure a fast pace along with stable companion Bouncing Boulder. Hiddendale and Lipstick have been disappointing this season. Needwood Blade is game and in form as is Border Subject. Ratio attracted mammoth support when withdrawn on his intended debut, so watch for him in the market. Pieter Brueghel comes from the in form stable of Paul Cole and he should be in the shake up. Meshaheer is reported to be back in tip top shape and his form entitles him go close. Suggestive is more than useful and Willie Haggas has him primed for this. L’Oiseau D’Argent will enjoy this trip; he may be soft in a finish. Millennium Dragon is best at Newmarket. Vicious Knight would have each-way claims if taking this option.
Selection: 1. Suggestive 2. Pieter Brueghel 3. Meshaheer 4. Vicious Knight
Six Furlongs 214 Yards Blue Bicycle Stakes (Nursery Handicap) (Class C) (2yo)
The dreaded nursery handicap. Logsdail is well thought of by the Mrs. Ramsden and he can hold off Makhlab and Dharkan.